华体会体育New Analysis of New York City Rental Markets: Mamdani’s Political Narrative Doesn’t Match Economic Reality… In NYC or California
加州马里布。 — More restrictive rent control was one of New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s key campaign promises—a response, he says, to a rental housing crisis in the region。 Here in California, a similar ‘crisis’ narrative about renting and renters has taken hold。
In light of these developments, the 佩珀代因华体会体育 and 灯塔经济学 have published 纽约州的租房者协会, an in-depth look at the economic health of tenants in the city using data from the U。S。 Census American 社区 Survey and other sources。 In contrast to the mayor-elect’s rhetoric, the analysis finds that housing costs have 拒绝 for a majority of NYC renters in recent years, driven by a strong labor market and rising wages。
“By most metrics, the renting landscape in New York City is better than it was ten years ago, with median rent-to-income ratios running at 28%, slightly below the national average,” said 克里斯托弗Thornberg, Founding Partner of 灯塔经济学。 He notes that renters are doing well enough that they are spreading out, with single-person renter households becoming one of the fastest-growing segments of the market。 “After paying for housing, the median NYC renter has roughly 20% more income left over than the median renter nationwide, and we found this to be true across income levels,” said Thornberg。 “Calling this an ‘affordability crisis’ deeply misrepresents what the data shows。”
The key problem is that supply has failed to keep up with demand, shrinking rental housing availability and pushing up costs—problems that rent control will only worsen, according to the analysis。 “People have been calling for rent control policies since ancient Rome,” said 皮特·彼得森, Braun Family Dean’s Chair and Dean of the 华体会体育 at Pepperdine。 “Setting limits on rent sounds like a simple solution in places like New York and Los Angeles, but such measures fail to address the root causes of high rent: insufficient supply of apartments at different income levels。 The nation — and especially New Yorkers and Angelenos — needs to realize that。”
“A lot of this ‘crisis’ is about perception,” said Niree Kodaverdian, Research Manager at 灯塔经济学 and lead author of the study。 “During COVID, evictions were artificially suppressed and households were boosted by temporary federal aid。 Coming off that, a return to more normal patterns feels awful even though the numbers are actually improving。”
Kodaverdian notes that the share of renters behind on rent is lower in 2024 than it was in 2020 in both New York State and the NYC metro。 “Our expectations are stuck in an unusually generous moment, and politicians can exploit the gap between feeling and fact,” she said。
The study does acknowledge differences in housing conditions across boroughs, with the Bronx standing out for higher rates of overcrowding and rent burden, driven in part by a larger share of lower-skilled immigrant households。 This raises the question of whether rent control is the appropriate tool, or whether policymakers who are serious about affordability should focus on policies that improve outcomes for these families, such as supporting income growth, expanding workforce participation, and addressing specific barriers such as language access and job matching。
Both Pepperdine and 灯塔经济学 have noted the importance of the NYC report’s timing given similar policy pushes in California。 The 洛杉矶市 recently passed a rent control measure affecting thousands of Angelenos, the 圣地亚哥市和县 are working together on an ordinance to cap rental fees, and the 伯班克市 has voted to draft an ordinance establishing a soft cap on annual rent hikes。 All of this is occurring while the 华体会体育wide rent cap under AB 1482 remains in effect。
Read the full 报告在这里。
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